1/10/2024

Jan 10, 2024


Some small signs of life were present in the market today but trade just couldn't hold corn and soybeans higher all the way into the close.  Corn ends the day virtually unchanged but March spreads continued on their recent trend of tightening.  It appears that some corn business was unofficially confirmed done today after it was rumored late yesterday.  Price action was terribly poor in soybeans today.  Buyers attempted to buy the dip shortly after the 8:30 market open which rallied us roughly 10 cents off that low.  This fresh money was washed out by the close today as trade took a round trip back to the same price levels we opened the day session with.  The weekly ethanol report showed a small increase in production of 13,000 barrels/day to 1.062 mln bpd.  Stocks grew by 800,000 barrels to 24.4 million barrels; this is an 8-month high.  Marketing year corn use for ethanol is approximately 6.7% ahead of last year's pace.  The USDA will likely need to increase their demand number for ethanol on the balance sheet.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.