1/11/2023

Jan 11, 2023


1/11/2023
A largely quiet day across the grain markets with relatively small ranges. Trade tried to rally for a move higher during the overnight session. After the 8:30 open, corn and soybeans fell back into some briefly lower trade before finishing the day in mixed fashion with modest gains on the front end. The USDA confirmed another soybean sale this morning, this time for 124,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year. Analysts are expecting a slightly negative report tomorrow for corn with a cut to exports and a bump in yield. Not much is seen changing on the soybean balance sheet. A small increase in yield is expected to trickle down to an increase in the 2022/23 ending stocks. Weekly ethanol data showed output was up 99,000 barrels/day to 943,000 bpd and stocks off 644,000 barrels to 23.8 mln bbls. Corn use for ethanol is estimated at 1.799 billion bushels for the current marketing year-to-date. This is down 6.4% from the previous year and 25 million bushels below the pace needed to meet the USDA target for the year.

March corn settles near the middle of its 7 month range going into tomorrow’s final production report. This long-term tightening/coiling pattern will produce a large break-out in either direction.
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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...