Grain > Commentary > 1-12-2024

1/12/2024

Jan 12, 2024

The USDA did not pull any punches when it came to the January WASDE and shocked the market with a record yield for the U.S. corn crop.  The USDA did what it could to soften the blow on the corn ending stocks.  First, by cutting 600,000 off of the acres harvested and then increasing most of the usage categories.  If it wasn't for those changes, the balance sheet rockets to a 2.4 bln bushels of ending stocks in corn.  Soybean numbers weren't as negative but a 0.7 bu/ac uptick in yield results in our ending stocks going to a not-as-tight 280 million bushels, up from 245 million bushels in our previous report.  Just last fall, 23/24 soybean ending stocks were estimated down near 200 million bushels.  Soybeans traded their lowest levels in two years following the report but had recovered nicely going into the close.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.