1/12/2024

Jan 12, 2024


The USDA did not pull any punches when it came to the January WASDE and shocked the market with a record yield for the U.S. corn crop.  The USDA did what it could to soften the blow on the corn ending stocks.  First, by cutting 600,000 off of the acres harvested and then increasing most of the usage categories.  If it wasn't for those changes, the balance sheet rockets to a 2.4 bln bushels of ending stocks in corn.  Soybean numbers weren't as negative but a 0.7 bu/ac uptick in yield results in our ending stocks going to a not-as-tight 280 million bushels, up from 245 million bushels in our previous report.  Just last fall, 23/24 soybean ending stocks were estimated down near 200 million bushels.  Soybeans traded their lowest levels in two years following the report but had recovered nicely going into the close.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.