Grain > Commentary > 1-25-2021

1/25/2021

Jan 25, 2021

1/25/2021
The overnight market started lower as Friday's major sell off continued initially with corn down 7 and beans down 13 at one point early.  This may have been the correction we needed getting corn to under $5.00 and beans to under $13.00 futures.  Most of the selling in recent days has now been blamed on Chinese hedge funds liquidating long positions before the Lunar New Year.  Rumor has it again that China was back in the market for corn and beans today and from the calls I was getting from the exporter I think it happened.  There have been harvest delays in Brazil due to continued rains which are causing concerns for export delays, which may have been part of the reason for China being back for US grains.  The other reason is obviously the recent break in the prices.  Who wouldn't want to buy beans $1.25 or so off the highs, especially when you have been in the market for them all along?  If export business picks back up off this break I am thinking the market is willing to get most of these recent losses back. 
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.