Grain > Commentary > 1-25-2021

1/25/2021

Jan 25, 2021

1/25/2021
The overnight market started lower as Friday's major sell off continued initially with corn down 7 and beans down 13 at one point early.  This may have been the correction we needed getting corn to under $5.00 and beans to under $13.00 futures.  Most of the selling in recent days has now been blamed on Chinese hedge funds liquidating long positions before the Lunar New Year.  Rumor has it again that China was back in the market for corn and beans today and from the calls I was getting from the exporter I think it happened.  There have been harvest delays in Brazil due to continued rains which are causing concerns for export delays, which may have been part of the reason for China being back for US grains.  The other reason is obviously the recent break in the prices.  Who wouldn't want to buy beans $1.25 or so off the highs, especially when you have been in the market for them all along?  If export business picks back up off this break I am thinking the market is willing to get most of these recent losses back. 
 

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.