1/25/2021

Jan 25, 2021


1/25/2021
The overnight market started lower as Friday's major sell off continued initially with corn down 7 and beans down 13 at one point early.  This may have been the correction we needed getting corn to under $5.00 and beans to under $13.00 futures.  Most of the selling in recent days has now been blamed on Chinese hedge funds liquidating long positions before the Lunar New Year.  Rumor has it again that China was back in the market for corn and beans today and from the calls I was getting from the exporter I think it happened.  There have been harvest delays in Brazil due to continued rains which are causing concerns for export delays, which may have been part of the reason for China being back for US grains.  The other reason is obviously the recent break in the prices.  Who wouldn't want to buy beans $1.25 or so off the highs, especially when you have been in the market for them all along?  If export business picks back up off this break I am thinking the market is willing to get most of these recent losses back. 
 

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.