1/25/2022

Jan 25, 2022


1/25/2022
Steady overnight trade left corn and soybeans slightly higher going into the coffee break. Commodities were the hot ticket today after yesterday's wild ride in the stock market and indexes. Today's higher finish in corn and soybeans was mostly a direct result of money flowing out of Wall Street. News is mostly routine and any concern about South American weather has suddenly gone silent. There appears to finally be some business getting done on the PNW market with exporters active on the phone today and this could have offered a little extra support to corn today. It will be interesting to see if we get a sale announcement from the USDA. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and with tensions rising on the Ukraine border, wheat was the price leader today with traders expecting sanctions to follow any type of military aggression from the Kremlin. The corn and soybean spreads have been unusually volatile to begin the week. Speculator money pushed corn into an inverse and it appears some of that is beginning to unwind with the corn board moving back towards a flat price.

Other notes:
-The DOW was near unchanged around 1:30pm today after trading a 1400-point range yesterday.

-Lean hog futures have rallied big over the last 7 days and found more to feed the bull after courts delayed California prop 12 for 6 months, spurring another round of fresh contract highs.

-Gold futures have been on a steady climb since mid-December and appear to be on the verge of a bullish breakout.

March corn tested two unique spots of resistance today and failed at both.
First, the daily chart: A bearish price signal with the candle finishing the day as a Gravestone doji with a very large shadow. We touched the overhead line of our trend channel but the bulls appear to be gassed and buying interest is drying up. After tacking on 30 cents in 6 days, a short term correction is needed. Looking for a move back to test support in the 600’0-605’0 area.
chart.jpg

Next, March corn weekly continuous: We started the day trading above our overhead trend line and eased back throughout the day to close below it.  Closing in on a trend line bowtie and expect corn to make a big move before March 2022 expires.
corn-chart-(1).jpg

Read More News

Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...