1/28/2021

Jan 28, 2021


1/28/2021
Another wild day in the grain markets today.  We were higher overnight and broke out into new highs on the 8:30 open this morning, as we got another BIG round of export sales.  They announced another 1,700,000 metric tons of corn to China and 213,600 metric ton of corn to Unknown.  That makes it 3,740,000 metric tons of corn to China for the week!  If you do the math on that it equates to 137 MILLION bushels!  That’s a big number and from what I hear there was more done today.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is we finished the day unchanged on corn and down 21 cents in soybeans.  Meal felt like it led the way lower down 10 bucks.  Bean export sales for last week were at 466 mt versus 800-1,400 expected.  Corn export sales were at 1,850 mt versus 900-1,600 expected.  The volatility in this market is absolutely incredible and I don't see that changing for a while.  Beans had a 46 cent range and corn had a 21 cent range today.  There is getting to be more gut checks in a days time as the market continuously shakes the tree allowing nobody to get comfortable.  It never hurts to have orders working,  if there is a price you are comfortable with.  There will be more days like today where the market spikes up and then drop before you can even blink.  Do what is right for your business and make sales as we work higher.  Buckle in!
 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.