1/3/2022

Turning the calendar over to 2022 meant risk-on for soybeans and soybean meal.  Corn expressed some strength overnight, once again trading above the 600'0 level.  The weekly export inspections report sucked the bullish air out of the room.  Corn shipments came in on the low end of expectations at 596k tonnes.  The corn export shipment pace is now 166 million bushels below the USDA's target, improving from 175 million bushels the previous week.  With Brazil starting soybean harvest, US soybean exports will begin to wind down and corn will become the logistical focus for exporters.  Pace should continue to improve.  Soybean shipments were below trade target at 1.192 mln tonnes vs a 1.400 mln minimum estimate.  This puts soybean pace at 18 million bushels over the USDA's export target, down from 21 million bushels the previous week.  The negative report triggered a mid-session sell off, turning corn lower for the day and knocking around 25 cents off the beans.  Soybeans recovered nicely off of their daily lows; corn was stuck in the red but did manage to pull itself a nickel off the lows.  It appeared to me like some are still absent from trade with volumes looking similar to the prior two weeks.

Big bearish reversal on corn today with March closing back below the old resistance line near 590’0.   Probably another chance for some $6.00 cash corn, yet, with build-up to next week’s crop production report coming into play soon.   Very little carry on the board with the March, May, July charts all looking similar.  615’0 futures is a realistic/healthy target for pricing.
Brazil and Argentina received some rains over the weekend but “not enough” according to experts.  1370’0-1380’0 is a good pricing target, with an outside chance at $13.50 cash after considering basis.  With Brazil adding acres this season along with good growing conditions for most of the season, I expect stiff resistance at the 1400’0 level if we can get there.