Grain > Commentary > 1-5-2021

1/5/2021

Jan 05, 2021

1/5/2021
Fresh buying interest in both soybeans and corn extends the rally another day. The story is much of the same; mixed bullish and bearish signals for corn and beans continue to search for the ration price. On the bull side for corn, strong fresh buying interest from funds and spec money today adding to their net long positions and Argentina's crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Also, the 60 day halt on corn exports out of Argentina creates the possibility of Brazil needing to import US corn. On the bear side, we need to pay attention to declining domestic use for ethanol and feed. An ethanol plant in Cedar Rapids, IA sent out official notice yesterday that they will be halting production. With corn futures close to $5.00 and crude oil relatively inexpensive, I'm positive this will not be an isolated case. Also, higher priced corn this early in the year is sure to send lighter weight cattle and hogs to market. An off trend dip in average live weights will be an indicator on usage. Current Brazil weather is favorable for crops with more precipitation forecasted. This bearish news was shrugged off as some S. American soy production forecasts were trimmed today and we continue the uptrend in search of price to make someone not buy soybeans.

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3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...