1/5/2024

Jan 05, 2024


Corn and soybeans turn in a poor performance to end the first trading week of 2024.  The charts are unattractive and soybeans are extremely oversold from a technical standpoint but there's something to be said about catching a falling knife.  The weekly export sales report appeared to give trade their excuse to continue lower.  Corn and soybean sales were both missed short of their expected ranges but I'm not sure how surprised we should really be about a poor export sales performance on a short week that is stuffed between two major holidays.  Corn sales totaled 367.5k tonnes and soybean sales came in a 201.6k tonnes.  Corn and soybeans were both well into new lows today while oats and the balance of the soy complex also traded extremely weak.  The lone bright spot were some modest gains across the wheat.  At this point, our best chance to put together a sustained rally is for a problem to develop somewhere around the globe that poses a threat to grains.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.