10/19/2023

Oct 19, 2023


After failing on the three previous attempts, December corn finally pushed through the $5 level in fairly strong fashion.  While there were some rumors of export business early on, today's trade seemed to be driven by funds exiting length in the cattle trade and unloading short corn positions.  Similar to what we see on the soybean charts, corn has some hurdles to jump just above the current level.  On the December chart, we have the 100-day moving average at 509, a gap to fill at 525, and the 200-day moving average at 536.  November soybeans set a new high for October as the sun rose this morning and were sold off around mid-morning on hedge pressure, down to the 1300 level where money was more than ready to protect and buyers came back in swiftly.  On November soybeans, resistance sits at the convergence of the 100- and 200-day moving averages near 1317'4, trade and hold above that and we have some room overhead to run.  Given our -60 basis, cash sales in the $12.60-12.65 area are a healthy start.  Upside potential towards the $12.90 cash area is realistic at this time.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.