Grain > Commentary > 10-26-2020

10/26/2020

Oct 26, 2020

10/26/2020
USDA announced sales of 135 mt soybean meal to Philippines and 120.7 mt soybeans to Unknown.  Brazil saw good rains over the weekend and initially had the market a little bit on edge.  There was also rain in Russia over the weekend along with needed rain in winter wheat country in the US, which had wheat on it heals all day as well.  Corn, beans, and wheat were all trading lower this morning, but once again someone was there to buy beans and defend their positions.  It still feels like we are close to a correction, but I have been saying that for a week now.  Weekly US soybean exports were impressive at 98 mil bu versus 85 last week and 58 last year. Season to date exports are near 527 mil bu versus 297 last year. USDA goal is 2,200 versus 1,676 last year.  Weekly US corn exports were at the low end of expectations at 25 mil bu. As I have mentioned before the corn program does not pick up until December, but continues to look promising.  Spreads continue to disappear on the corn as we near even money.  The bean carries are long gone.  Everyone wants the grain now and are not satisfied by the amount of corn movement off the combine. 
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.