10/27/2020

Oct 27, 2020


10/27/2020
Corn harvested was at 72% complete last night vs 60% last week and a 5 year average of 56%.  Soybeans harvested was at 83% complete vs 75% last week and a 5 year average of 73%.  There is talk that some Managed funds may be looking to reduce some of their net longs in grain and oilseed futures before the US election. US stock market is back near key support.  Beans had a key reversal today making new highs and finishing lower.  We will see how we respond to that tomorrow.  Corn also made a new high for the move today at 4.22 futures and finished lower.  This might be the start of the correction I have been preaching about.  We did not have any sales announcements this morning.  China talk on corn exports remains stout and the basis and spreads are telling that story.  We are definitely in some very interesting times, so continue to do what is right for your business operation and don't try to swing for the fence with all of it.  I am still a seller here to take some risk off the table.  For those of you with corn in the bin, I know there is no carry in the futures anymore, but at the moment basis will pay that premium this year as we get into Jan, Feb, Mar, and April.  If you have any questions on strategy with bushels at home feel free to call me.  Thanks!
 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.