10/27/2020

Oct 27, 2020


10/27/2020
Corn harvested was at 72% complete last night vs 60% last week and a 5 year average of 56%.  Soybeans harvested was at 83% complete vs 75% last week and a 5 year average of 73%.  There is talk that some Managed funds may be looking to reduce some of their net longs in grain and oilseed futures before the US election. US stock market is back near key support.  Beans had a key reversal today making new highs and finishing lower.  We will see how we respond to that tomorrow.  Corn also made a new high for the move today at 4.22 futures and finished lower.  This might be the start of the correction I have been preaching about.  We did not have any sales announcements this morning.  China talk on corn exports remains stout and the basis and spreads are telling that story.  We are definitely in some very interesting times, so continue to do what is right for your business operation and don't try to swing for the fence with all of it.  I am still a seller here to take some risk off the table.  For those of you with corn in the bin, I know there is no carry in the futures anymore, but at the moment basis will pay that premium this year as we get into Jan, Feb, Mar, and April.  If you have any questions on strategy with bushels at home feel free to call me.  Thanks!
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.