10/27/2020

Oct 27, 2020


10/27/2020
Corn harvested was at 72% complete last night vs 60% last week and a 5 year average of 56%.  Soybeans harvested was at 83% complete vs 75% last week and a 5 year average of 73%.  There is talk that some Managed funds may be looking to reduce some of their net longs in grain and oilseed futures before the US election. US stock market is back near key support.  Beans had a key reversal today making new highs and finishing lower.  We will see how we respond to that tomorrow.  Corn also made a new high for the move today at 4.22 futures and finished lower.  This might be the start of the correction I have been preaching about.  We did not have any sales announcements this morning.  China talk on corn exports remains stout and the basis and spreads are telling that story.  We are definitely in some very interesting times, so continue to do what is right for your business operation and don't try to swing for the fence with all of it.  I am still a seller here to take some risk off the table.  For those of you with corn in the bin, I know there is no carry in the futures anymore, but at the moment basis will pay that premium this year as we get into Jan, Feb, Mar, and April.  If you have any questions on strategy with bushels at home feel free to call me.  Thanks!
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.