Grain > Commentary > 10-27-2022

10/27/2022

Oct 27, 2022

10/27/2022
Another day of sideways trade comes to an end. November soybeans traded 13 cents higher shortly after 8:30 this morning but were unable to hold the move higher. The weekly export sales appeared to show a solid 1.026 mln tonnes of beans sold last week but more than half of that number was previous business switched from unknown destinations. Corn sales disappointed, coming in below expectations at 264k tonnes sold. Doing a year-to-year comparison, 2022/23 corn sales are currently 47% behind and soybean sales run 5% ahead of last year at this time. The savior for the corn market has been domestic demand. Ethanol and livestock appear to be doing "okay" even with the current high price for corn and seek further ownership.

Starting to see some attention being paid to the drought monitor as harvest winds down. The current state is supportive to the market as we go into winter.
drought-monitor.png

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.