11/10/2022

Nov 10, 2022


11/10/2022
A little post-WASDE hangover in the markets today as any big market moving news continues to be lacking. Corn and soybeans traded mostly sideways/slightly higher overnight before reversing. A lack of headlines is typically negative for markets and combining a slow newswire with a now bigger crop sent money away from grains. The USDA announced the sale of 209,931 tonnes of corn to Mexico for the 2022/23 marketing year. The USDA chose to not address to the slow export pace for the 2022/23 corn and left that number unchanged. Export sales were weak last week, most notably for corn. At 265k tonnes, corn sales were their lowest for the week since 2012. Soybeans posting 795k tonnes of net sales was average for this week. To date, current export sales pace is 346 million bushels short of meeting the USDA target (a 24 million bushel increase from last week). Soybean sales pace has also slowed down and is now 76 million bushels short versus 64 million bushels a week ago.

Key reversal lower on the January soybean chart today. After a sharp rally to begin November, we have corrected lower to an area where there is some moving average convergence in the 1412-1420 area and trendline support around the 1400 level. We will be watching this area closely to see how the market wants to approach it. Hopefully this recent pullback on the futures will stimulate some much-needed fresh export demand for corn.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.