Grain > Commentary > 11-11-2020

11/11/2020

Nov 11, 2020

11/11/2020
Today's market seemed to relax a bit after yesterday's USDA report surprises.  Corn settled back lower on the day down 6 after putting in new highs overnight.  Corn spreads are finally indicating that the export market does not want corn until January, February and March.  December to March corn is now back at a 9.5 cent carry which is a far cry from the slight inverse we were trading just two weeks ago.  December to July is now out to almost 15 cents.  Those of you needing to roll HTA's this is a great opportunity.  Those of you with December basis contracts might want to price that out before the November 25th deadline, because rolling them now does not look attractive.  Beans made new highs overnight up 16 cents before slightly fading and finishing up 6 cents.  The 190 million carryout continues to catch the bull’s eye and many are thinking that is still too high.  Farmer selling was non-existent today after yesterday’s busy day.  Corn seems to be locked away until the winter and springs months now, which is understandable as the board and basis continue to improve almost daily.  Beans are even harder to buy as the majority of them already got sold off the combine.  Beans continue to feel like they are going to work toward 12.00 futures.
 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.