Grain > Commentary > 11-11-2020

11/11/2020

Nov 11, 2020

11/11/2020
Today's market seemed to relax a bit after yesterday's USDA report surprises.  Corn settled back lower on the day down 6 after putting in new highs overnight.  Corn spreads are finally indicating that the export market does not want corn until January, February and March.  December to March corn is now back at a 9.5 cent carry which is a far cry from the slight inverse we were trading just two weeks ago.  December to July is now out to almost 15 cents.  Those of you needing to roll HTA's this is a great opportunity.  Those of you with December basis contracts might want to price that out before the November 25th deadline, because rolling them now does not look attractive.  Beans made new highs overnight up 16 cents before slightly fading and finishing up 6 cents.  The 190 million carryout continues to catch the bull’s eye and many are thinking that is still too high.  Farmer selling was non-existent today after yesterday’s busy day.  Corn seems to be locked away until the winter and springs months now, which is understandable as the board and basis continue to improve almost daily.  Beans are even harder to buy as the majority of them already got sold off the combine.  Beans continue to feel like they are going to work toward 12.00 futures.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.