11/15/2021

Nov 15, 2021


11/15/2021
Overnight trade for corn and soybeans was two-sided but mostly lower.  The USDA confirmed sales this morning of 264,000 tonnes of soybeans to Unknown for 2021/22 and 198,200 tonnes of corn to Mexico split between 2021/22 and 2022/23.  Spring wheat trading 20-30 lower throughout the session applied some pressure to the corn market today.  Reuters reported this morning that China was in to purchase an estimated 300,000 - 700,000 tonnes of Ukrainian corn (roughly 12-27.5 million bushels).  It's a bit odd China would purchase that large of a volume at the more expensive Ukrainian values.  There was a comment that it may have something to do with how the USDA reports exports sales and how those specific announcements can drive the market higher almost immediately.  Soybeans were 10-13 higher, supported by soybean meal.  Meal futures have gained $25-30/ton in the last 3 trading days.  Weekly export inspections for corn and wheat outperformed trade expectations with 856k tonnes of corn and 389 tonnes of wheat inspected.  Inspections for soybeans were mid-range at 2.074 million tonnes.  In the first 10 weeks of the marketing year, 524.81 million bushels of soybeans were shipped.  That is approximately 24% of the USDA's forecast for the year.  At the same point last year, the US had shipped 35% of its 2.05-billion-bushel forecast.

December corn eased away from trend line resistance today.  Will likely see the front month return to the 550’0 area if unable to trade through and manufacture a close above this level.
corn-chart.jpgJanuary soybeans returned to trade near a level of heavy resistance over the past month.  Similar to corn, need a strong close above these values to break higher or will likely see a 30-40 cent sell off.
beans.jpg

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...