Grain > Commentary > 11-15-2022

11/15/2022

Nov 15, 2022

11/15/2022
Today looked like it was going to end quietly higher in corn and soybeans on simple short covering following our recent downtrend.  Just after 12-noon, it was reported a stray Russian missile had struck inside the Polish border.  This is significant because Poland is a NATO member.  The market reacted with December corn trading 18 higher and January soybeans 24 higher before easing back towards more modest gains on the day.  Corn finished 6-10 higher and soybeans 11-13 higher.  This morning, the USDA announced two sales to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year: 230,185 tonnes of corn and 261,272 tonnes of soybeans.  The NOPA Crush for October was reported at 184.464 million bushels, spot on with trade expectations.  Soy oil stocks came in at 1.528bln lbs, just below the 1.535B estimate.  It's always the darkest before dawn and we are getting into a timeframe where we see the seasonal trend for corn reverse up and today's war headline may be enough to get us started.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.