11/15/2022

Today looked like it was going to end quietly higher in corn and soybeans on simple short covering following our recent downtrend.  Just after 12-noon, it was reported a stray Russian missile had struck inside the Polish border.  This is significant because Poland is a NATO member.  The market reacted with December corn trading 18 higher and January soybeans 24 higher before easing back towards more modest gains on the day.  Corn finished 6-10 higher and soybeans 11-13 higher.  This morning, the USDA announced two sales to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year: 230,185 tonnes of corn and 261,272 tonnes of soybeans.  The NOPA Crush for October was reported at 184.464 million bushels, spot on with trade expectations.  Soy oil stocks came in at 1.528bln lbs, just below the 1.535B estimate.  It's always the darkest before dawn and we are getting into a timeframe where we see the seasonal trend for corn reverse up and today's war headline may be enough to get us started.