Grain > Commentary > 11-16-2020

11/16/2020

Nov 16, 2020

11/16/2020
NOPA October soybean crush jumps to a record-high 185.245 million bushels, which is a massive number.  Beans were trading unchanged when that number came out and we managed to finish up a nickel.  There were no new export sales announced today, but China is rumored to be looking for April/May corn.  Rail freight has fell flat on its face the past couple weeks and has the nearby trading at slight unders.  The BNSF running 150 grain shuttles might have something to do with that.  Weekend rail performance was poor, so we will see what that means for values this week.  Grain bids on the rail have nearly disappeared for both corn and beans as new purchases have dried up as of late.  The exporter feels more than covered for the time being and waiting for that next round of business to show up before they try to buy more.  Farmer selling has really slowed down, which is getting the processors to start to perk their bids and become competitive with the export markets.  Corn and beans will be hard to buy the balance of this calendar year, so basis will likely continue to improve slowly.  There was another announcement by the U.S. pharmaceutical company Moderna that their Covid vaccine is ready and 94.5% effective, which is helping the outside markets as well today.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.