Grain > Commentary > 11-17-2020

11/17/2020

Nov 17, 2020

11/17/2020
USDA announced a sale of 195 mt US corn to Mexico. Still no new US corn or soybean sales to China despite rumors of them buying both corn and beans as of late.  Corn was rumored of 500,000 MT out of the gulf yesterday, but nothing got confirmed.  Corn bids on the rail have disappeared as freight fell apart and are still not very well defined today.  Processors continue to improve basis locally as new corn movement likely won’t happen until the winter months.  Corn support today came from the firm soybeans market and Brazil weather concerns for the safrinha planting which begins after soy harvest.  Beans are the story at the moment and will be for a while as a 190 million carryout is tight and that might be getting tighter by the day.  We are in rationing mode and higher prices may be needed if this carryout or less is realized.  US corn harvest this past week moved to 95% complete, while bean harvest is now at 96% complete.  For those of you with corn HTA's left in the Dec we are running out of time and the spread is tightening back up as the board moves higher.  For those of you with corn basis contracts under the Dec you are also running out time, but the spread tightening is working in your favor.  We have until the Nov 25th to get the Dec futures cleaned up.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.