11/30/2021

Nov 30, 2021


11/30/2021
A widespread macro sell-off with most markets seeing length exit sharply.  Most of the commodities, indexes, and other asset classes were overbought a due for a sharp correction, new corona virus concerns were the trigger to get us started.  The USDA announced the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/22 marketing year.  Its good to see some business getting done on this price break and trade is beginning to see the potential of a big soy crop in South America.  Small grains saw some huge long liquidation today with March oats and various wheat contracts finishing limit down.  The spring wheat weekly continuous chart could see a huge key bear reversal this week with large spec funds and managed money have using the first couple days this week to exit position length.  Crude oil futures have reeled back 20% from their contract highs that were set a little over a month ago.  As of around 2:00 pm, the DOW was down 600 points and the NASDAQ was about 240 points lower.  Dollar index was around 300 ticks lower, coming off of a sharp mid-November rally.

March corn closed around 30 cents off of its most recent high.  Expect some technical buying to come in around the 555’0-557’0 area in line with our most recent low and the 50 and 100 day moving averages.
corn-chart.jpgNovember 22 beans closed below the 200 day moving average for only the second time since the average came on.  I expect the 1200 area to be defended
beans-(1).jpg

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.