11/7/2023

Nov 07, 2023


Corn and soybeans spent most of the overnight session stuck in lower trade but the 8:30 re-open saw a big shot of life return to the soybeans. Beans moved higher quickly up to the mid-day point of the session, with gains of up to 16 cents, but were unable to hold. We quickly faded away off of the fresh highs and found lower trade, once again. Corn was never able to take advantage of the strength in soybeans and only able to trade at unchanged or lower and ended Tuesday with losses of 6-7 cents. Losses in soybeans ranged from 2-13 cents. This past week's large move higher in beans had been fueled by rumors of export business and the price action in soybean spreads finally provided validation today. The USDA confirmed the sale of 110,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year. We've hit a couple of price targets very quickly in soybeans so now would be a good time for the market to take a breath and the opportunity for a healthy pullback.

A quick trip to touch the July trendline today before fading back to a 2 lower finish. A correction to the downside should not come as a surprise after such a large move higher. Excellent moving average and trend line support underneath the current levels.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.