11/7/2023

Nov 07, 2023


Corn and soybeans spent most of the overnight session stuck in lower trade but the 8:30 re-open saw a big shot of life return to the soybeans. Beans moved higher quickly up to the mid-day point of the session, with gains of up to 16 cents, but were unable to hold. We quickly faded away off of the fresh highs and found lower trade, once again. Corn was never able to take advantage of the strength in soybeans and only able to trade at unchanged or lower and ended Tuesday with losses of 6-7 cents. Losses in soybeans ranged from 2-13 cents. This past week's large move higher in beans had been fueled by rumors of export business and the price action in soybean spreads finally provided validation today. The USDA confirmed the sale of 110,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year. We've hit a couple of price targets very quickly in soybeans so now would be a good time for the market to take a breath and the opportunity for a healthy pullback.

A quick trip to touch the July trendline today before fading back to a 2 lower finish. A correction to the downside should not come as a surprise after such a large move higher. Excellent moving average and trend line support underneath the current levels.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.