Grain > Commentary > 12-1-2020

12/1/2020

Dec 01, 2020

12/1/2020
News is very quiet and the markets continued fade into the close today.  March corn broke the 4.23 level today, but hung onto the next support level of 4.20.  Ultimately there is a chance we could go down and test the 4.00 level, but that would take a widespread rain in South America.  Beans look destined now to test that 11.38 January level I mentioned yesterday.  Bean exports have slowed and the exporters seem over bought currently as no more new business has showed up for a while.  The market hasn’t had more than a few day setbacks in months. Is it time we do now?  The last set back we had was during month end in October and continued into the first couple days on November, which was about a 42 cent pull back, and then we blew up into new high levels.  Are we setting up for the same thing?  We are about to find out for sure, but my gut says 11.38 is in play, which is a healthy correction in my opinion.  South American weather will likely decide our fate either way.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.