12/18/2023

Dec 18, 2023


Soybeans continue to improve, keeping intact a short-term trend of day-to-day higher lows on the chart. The corn market continued on in uneventful trade. We are still waiting for something spark and create some excitement. After a short rally to begin December, it looks like we may once again test out the fresh lows set in November. Weekly export inspections were encouraging with corn and soybeans both reported at the top-end of expectations with 947k tonnes and 1.412 mln tonnes respectively. That was a 3-week high for soybeans and a nice recovery towards average pace after some poor showings. Corn inspections were above average for the week. Shipment pace for corn has improved to 14 million bushels behind the USDA forecast versus 23 million bushels behind last week. Soybeans inspection pace slipped this week, from 7 million bushels short last week to 11 million bushels short this week.

Watching the forecasts and what precipitation materializes in South America as the crop nears the finishing phase.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.