12/18/2023

Dec 18, 2023


Soybeans continue to improve, keeping intact a short-term trend of day-to-day higher lows on the chart. The corn market continued on in uneventful trade. We are still waiting for something spark and create some excitement. After a short rally to begin December, it looks like we may once again test out the fresh lows set in November. Weekly export inspections were encouraging with corn and soybeans both reported at the top-end of expectations with 947k tonnes and 1.412 mln tonnes respectively. That was a 3-week high for soybeans and a nice recovery towards average pace after some poor showings. Corn inspections were above average for the week. Shipment pace for corn has improved to 14 million bushels behind the USDA forecast versus 23 million bushels behind last week. Soybeans inspection pace slipped this week, from 7 million bushels short last week to 11 million bushels short this week.

Watching the forecasts and what precipitation materializes in South America as the crop nears the finishing phase.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.