12/21/2022

Dec 21, 2022


12/21/2022
Corn ended Wednesday 2-10 cents higher in firm fashion with the March 2023 contract trading fresh 3-week highs. Soybeans traded either side of unchanged, closing 1-4 cents higher out to the November 2023 contract, supported mostly on rumors of some fresh China business. There were no export sale announcements this morning but today's rally in corn sparked some farmer selling. Weekly ethanol data showed output down 32,000 barrels per day to 1.03 mln bpd and stocks off 342,000 barrels to 24.07 mln bbls. Corn use for ethanol is very close to the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast for the 2022/23 marketing year. Corn basis is showing signs of cracking with rail business stagnant and poor ethanol margins. The markets will trade a full session on Friday and will remain closed until 8:30am next Tuesday, Dec 27. Glacial Plains will be closed December 26.

Corn broke out of it’s down trend channel to the high side today. Assuming follow-through buying comes in for the final 2 days of trade this week, we’re looking at a move back into the 670’s as a big possibility. The 200-day moving average, finishing the day at 677’2, would be a prime target on a quick rally.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.