12/21/2023

Dec 21, 2023


As we near the extended holiday weekend, trade continues to look disinterested in commodities in general. Corn and soybeans have been in a day-to-day pattern of taking turns selling off. We are in full holiday mode in the markets and there's nothing moving us but chart trade. Our final 2023 production numbers will be out in January and will likely provide our next best opportunity at pricing grain. Weekly net export sales came in at some nice levels and at mid-range of expectations with 1.013 mln tonnes of corn and 1.989 mln tonnes of soybeans sales last week. That was a 7-week low in corn sales but still ahead of the sales pace needed to hit the USDA target. That was also the second best week of the last year for soybeans.

A lack of seasonal snowfall has the drought monitor starting to add more color. Still plenty of time for some significant snowfalls but if current conditions persist, trade will not be able to ignore this.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.