12/5/2023

After displaying some strength overnight and in the early portion of the day session, soybeans continued on their trend lower and printed fresh lows for the move and their lowest quotes since mid-October. Corn and wheat both held steady in the 1-5 cent higher range throughout the day as they look to continue trending higher and reverse the charts towards a more positive outlook. China has been an active buyer of wheat as of recent. Yesterday, the USDA announced three export sales for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year: 440,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat to China; 267,044 tonnes of corn to Mexico; and 183,000 tonnes of soybean meal to the Philippines. This was followed by another 198,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat to China announced this morning. Export inspections for corn came in above expectations with 1.158 mln tonnes shipped last week. Soybean slightly underperformed at 1.109 mln tonnes. Shipment pace for soybeans is now 13 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 30 million short last week. A very quick increase in corn shipment pace has corn 19 million bushels behind target versus 38 million a week ago.

Soybeans spent the first half of November rallying mostly on weather in South America but as conditions and forecasts improved, that money has now been completely washed out. This is likely an area we will see funds and spec look to re-own futures.