12/8/2023

Dec 08, 2023


Friday looked like corn and soybeans were going to continue on their recovery path heading into the weekend. We started our day with another set of sale announcements from the USDA. These sales included 136,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, 110,000 tonnes of soft red wheat to China, and 165,000 tonnes of corn to unknown all for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year. Corn was trading 3-4 higher and soybeans near 15 higher going into our monthly WASDE report. With the funds current positions, trade had no problem picking up some fresh length ahead of the report. The report offered little-to-no fresh fundamentals to trade and the new money sold-off during the remaining 2 hours of the session. Corn closed with losses of 1-3 cents and soybeans gave up 4-7 cents on the day.

A slight increase to the corn export forecast and no changes on the soybean balance sheet.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.