12/8/2023

Dec 08, 2023


Friday looked like corn and soybeans were going to continue on their recovery path heading into the weekend. We started our day with another set of sale announcements from the USDA. These sales included 136,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, 110,000 tonnes of soft red wheat to China, and 165,000 tonnes of corn to unknown all for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year. Corn was trading 3-4 higher and soybeans near 15 higher going into our monthly WASDE report. With the funds current positions, trade had no problem picking up some fresh length ahead of the report. The report offered little-to-no fresh fundamentals to trade and the new money sold-off during the remaining 2 hours of the session. Corn closed with losses of 1-3 cents and soybeans gave up 4-7 cents on the day.

A slight increase to the corn export forecast and no changes on the soybean balance sheet.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.