2/10/2021

The spec money that had driven up futures ahead of the report release continued to liquidate back out overnight and throughout the day.  Tomorrow may very well see us continue to fade back as corn and beans both need to correct a bit further to return to the trading levels we saw during the final week of January.  Markets will be closed Monday in observance of President's Day and with bean harvest well underway in Brazil, I would not expect fund and spec money to return until after the extended weekend.  Market news was light today.  We did have an 8am export announcement of a sale cancellation of 132,000 tonnes of corn to unknown.  In the big picture, this amount of corn shouldn't really move market but trade still did not like it.  There are already several analysts questioning the accuracy, which isn't surprising.  Corn export sales already at 85% of the total estimate (65% avg) is indicator that sales may be understated in this report by anywhere from 200-400 million bushels.  There is a similar story for beans developing, as well.  Many are putting our soybean carryout at 100 million bushels, with some having a number as low as 50 mln bu.  Even if accurate, it’s unlikely the USDA would publish a number this low.