Grain > Commentary > 2-10-2023

2/10/2023

Feb 10, 2023

2/10/2023
Grains had a nice rally today following several key headlines.  Weather outlooks in South America that lowered next week’s rainfall expectations. Coverage is only expected to be 50% as well. News that Russia claims it will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day was also supportive. Heightened fighting between Russia and Ukraine was also positive for futures, mainly wheat.  The grain markets seemed to follow wheat higher right out of the 8:30 open.  We have heard these stories many times this year, so I will waive the caution flag to be careful.  We are approaching the upper level of the trading range, so it would not hurt to reward the market a little.  If you don't want to sell here maybe put some orders in for Sunday night. 6.70 cash corn and 15.00 cash beans remain a good target.  Have a good Super Bowl Weekend!!   

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.