2/14/2024

Feb 14, 2024


The markets offered no love on Valentine's Day. Corn and soybeans broke to the downside with what appears to be the beginning of another leg lower on the charts. Historically, soybeans have never spent much time trading in the $11 range and move quickly to either $10 or $12. Trade is expecting tomorrow's Ag outlook forum to provide a bearish overtone on the market. This report really shouldn't carry the weight that it does but it's published at a time during the year that is typically quiet and there's not much else to trade. We should expect to see a decrease in corn and an increase in soybean acres with trend-line yields plugged in. This will forecast some large 2024/25 ending stocks. Weekly ethanol production increased by 50k barrels/day to 1.083 mln bbls. Ethanol stocks also increased week-to-week from 24.8 mln to 25.8 mln barrels. Ethanol is now running 75 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA forecasted use of corn.

Corn futures came within 3 cents of completing a complete retracement back to the breakout (4.19) of our corn bull market that occurred in December 2020.

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...