2/15/2024

The Ag Outlook forum published their annual numbers for the 2024 crop. In all honesty, this report should carry absolutely no weight in the markets but the timing is at a point when we typically are so quiet for any market headlines that trade needs it. Highlights on the forum outlook: 2024 corn acres at 91.0 mln (2023 94.6 mln), corn yield at 181.0 bpa (2023 177.3 bpa), 24/25 corn ending stocks 2.532 bln bu (23/24 currently at 2.172 bln), soybean acres at 87.5 mln (2023 83.6 mln), bean yield at 52.0 bpa (2023 50.6 bpa), 24/25 soybean ending stocks at 435 mln bu (23/24 currently at 315 mln). Historically, corn ending stocks have come in below this February estimate 5 out of the last 7 years and have been high on yield the past 5 years by an average of 6 bpa. On the soybean side, the estimated carryout has been high 12 out of the past 16 years but low on yield 7 out of the past 10. Weekly export sales were decent with corn on the high end of expectations at 1.307 mln tonnes sold and soybeans on the low side of their estimated range at 354k tonnes. Both came in above the volume needed to maintain export sales pace for the USDA's estimated volumes for the 2023/24 marketing year.

Chart update from earlier this week: soybeans have decided and they chose violence.\