Grain > Commentary > 2-16-2024

2/16/2024

Feb 16, 2024

Soybeans traded solely higher and lead the way into the weekend with some nice bounces.  Corn was trading up to 4 higher early on but ended Friday with March and May 24 contracts slightly lower and 1-2 cents higher further out.  The overall vibe in the market was positive and it feels like traders might be ready to call the bluff of the managed money crowd's huge short positions.  Options activity suggested that maybe the tides were beginning to turn.  Historically, these record-sized short positions do not hold very incredibly long and we are close to meeting the expiration timeframe of what we have seen in the past.  There were no USDA announcements or reports today.  We did overlook yesterday's NOPA crush report.  Jan 2024 crush came in at 185.78 mln bushels.  That was below the trade guess of 189.928 mln bushels but still a record high for January of any year.  Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.507 bln pounds, well above the average analyst estimate of 1.409 bln.

Read More News

3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...