Grain > Commentary > 2-2-2023

2/2/2023

Feb 02, 2023

2/2/2023
Price action in corn and soybeans was independent today. Corn was higher overnight and went into the coffee break at 4 cents higher, the market saw this as an opportunity to liquidate length. March corn was stuck in 5-6 lower trade from mid-day into the close. Soybeans opened above the prior day's close and enjoyed a strong day of trade that was almost exclusively higher. Overall, a nice recovery from yesterday's sell-off. The market is choosing to ignore a record first crop in Brazil and improved conditions in Argentina. Soybean exports, overall, have probably out performed expectations but our elevated board prices have certainly been detrimental for corn export business. It's no secret that U.S. grains are the most expensive in the world and Brazil has been undercutting us for over a year. Brazil's corn exports for January were estimated at 6.4 million tonnes, up from 4.4 mmt the prior year. Old crop basis has been weakening steadily over the past 2 months. Weekly export sales were above expectations for corn with 1.593 million tonnes sold. Soybeans were within the trade range estimates at 736k tonnes sold.

Dec 23 corn in a steady downtrend since harvest.
corn-chart.png

Read More News

3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...