2/2/2024

Feb 02, 2024


Friday didn't offer us anything fresh in the markets.  Corn was quietly down in the range of 2-4 cents and soybeans settle 13-15 cents lower and just above fresh lows as the market continues to price in record production and favorable conditions in Brazil.  Following three years of traditionally high prices, incredible production in the U.S., and added acres in South America there is a plentiful supply of grain around the globe.  Near-record prices of soybeans in the U.S. has created demand destruction and allowed Brazil to undercut our exports.  Corn usage has increased year-over-year during this market cycle but big acres and record yield in the U.S. has given end users a plentiful supply.  Overall outlook for the markets continues to be lower.  Extended forecasts have been consistent in favoring an early spring.  Average planting pace, average growing conditions, and average yields for corn and soybeans is not supportive to current price levels.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.