2/5/2021

Trade was quiet and subdued in both sessions.  We continued to consolidate trade, especially on the bottom side of corn, and expect further re-positioning to keep us range-bound leading up to the WASDE report release next Tuesday.  We had an 8 am export sale announcement this morning of 101,600 tonnes of corn to unknown.  Corn prices in China have rebounded this week and beans loaded out of the US Gulf are still a discount to Brazil.  While most will only pay attention to the carryout numbers in Tuesday's report, there are some other figures to definitely keep an eye on.  First is corn for feed & residual.  Bird numbers easing down and there's talk of a possible large dip in the market hog supply in the late spring/early summer.  Less hogs mean less corn used.  Also watch for a change in bean imports to the US.  The USDA's number of 35 mil bu. needs to be doubled to satisfy our current usage rate.  If realized, it would likely result in a nice improvement in soybean basis country-wide as we progress through the marketing year.  An increase in corn exports larger than 100 million bu. should be paid attention to.  Adding 100 mil bu only gets us back to our Dec. report number.  Finally, watch the corn use for ethanol.  This number was cut by 50 mil bu in January.  Everyone do your best to stay warm this weekend!