2/6/2023

Feb 06, 2023


2/6/2023
A quiet day for corn, trading a 5-7 cent range and finishing mostly 1-3 cents higher.  Soybeans were double-digits lower, reeling from a reversal lower in soybean meal and some quietly lower trade in soy oil.  The USDA made a pair of sale announcements this morning.  First were 111,800 tonnes of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Second was 200,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico, split 50/50 between the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years.  Weekly export inspections showed another sizeable week for soybeans coming in on the high end of expectations with 1.830 mln tonnes shipped.  Corn shipments were on the low-side with 480k tonnes shipped.  This is the second lowest corn total for this week in the past 10 years.  Soybean shipment pace is now 40 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA target for the year.  Corn export shipments to date are 143 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet the USDA target and the deficit has been growing over the past few weeks.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.