2/8/2024

Feb 08, 2024


HUGE data dump today… CONAB, USDA WASDE, Weekly Export Sales, USDA Flash Sale… Soybeans held well despite the negative USDA report, trade appears to be buying into CONAB's story on the Brazil bean crop… Report was a snoozer for corn but did not provide any new negativity.
-USDA 8 a.m.: 200,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia in the 2023/24 marketing year
-CONAB: Brazil total soybean production at 149.4 mmt versus 154.61 in January, total corn at 113.7 versus 117.6 last month.
-USDA puts Brazil corn production at 124.32 versus 127.0 in January, total soybean at 153.17 versus 157.0 in Jan.
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Corn at the top end of the expected range with 1.219 mln tonnes (600k-1.3 mln tonnes expected).
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Soybean sales miss at 341k tonnes (400k-1.0 mln tonnes expected).

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.