Grain > Commentary > 2-8-2024

2/8/2024

Feb 08, 2024

HUGE data dump today… CONAB, USDA WASDE, Weekly Export Sales, USDA Flash Sale… Soybeans held well despite the negative USDA report, trade appears to be buying into CONAB's story on the Brazil bean crop… Report was a snoozer for corn but did not provide any new negativity.
-USDA 8 a.m.: 200,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia in the 2023/24 marketing year
-CONAB: Brazil total soybean production at 149.4 mmt versus 154.61 in January, total corn at 113.7 versus 117.6 last month.
-USDA puts Brazil corn production at 124.32 versus 127.0 in January, total soybean at 153.17 versus 157.0 in Jan.
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Corn at the top end of the expected range with 1.219 mln tonnes (600k-1.3 mln tonnes expected).
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Soybean sales miss at 341k tonnes (400k-1.0 mln tonnes expected).

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.