Grain > Commentary > 3-10-2021

3/10/2021

Mar 10, 2021

3/10/2021
Largely weaker trade on smaller volume in both sessions as long liquidation continued following what some see as an underwhelming WASDE report yesterday. Today's trade is mostly a continuance from the past 5 weeks; big daily ranges in both corn and beans working inside the larger, established ranges. Ethanol production for the week ending March 5, 2021 returned to pre-winter storm levels at 938,000 barrels/day. Ethanol usage for the week was also one of the best over the past 12 months. Basis has been firming consistently since mid-January even with ethanol production somewhat side-lined. The recent rally in crude oil has made ethanol more attractive and it would not take a very big improvement in ethanol margins to see plants ramp up production and make a push for corn coverage and, as a result, further strengthening basis in the western corn belt. The biggest news today was the Rosario Grain Exchange cutting the Argentina soybean production forecast from 49 million tonnes down to 45 million tonnes (146.6 million bushels). Given the USDA left their Argentina soybean production unchanged at 47.5 million tonnes in the report yesterday, the market did not react to this information at all. Despite the wind and cold, I am thankful for the Mother Nature bringing us some much needed moisture today.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.