3/2/2021

Mar 02, 2021


3/2/2021
Weaker trade overnight in both corn and beans turned strongly higher in our day session on what could be best described as the buying simply outweighed the selling today.  We were able to recover a good portion of Monday's losses with corn and beans both settling in the middle of their 3-week trading ranges.  We did have a daily export sale announcement this morning of 175,000 tonnes of corn to Japan for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  This is the first daily export sale announcement since February 12 and we have no seen China as a flash buyer since January 29.  The United Kingdom announced that it will double the amount of ethanol blended in motor fuel from 5% to 10%.  This should be friendly long term for both ethanol and corn demand.  Some parts of Brazil received excessive rains overnight, with one isolated area receiving 10" of rain.  It is too early to know if the high amount of precipitation will result in any significant crop damage.  Overall, weather leans friendly for soybeans.  Argentina continues to see increased drought stress and the US drought monitor has seen little-to-no improvement over the past couple weeks.  Continue to evaluate your operation's risk and set new crop pricing goals accordingly.  In terms of market, this spring will be interesting.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.