3/24/2021

Mar 24, 2021


3/24/2021
In what could be the lightest volume day this year so far, corn was mixed in both sessions and finishes 2 higher on the day in modest fashion.  Soybeans were higher for a large portion of the overnight hours and spent most of the day session between 2-4 cents higher before a push in the final hour of the day had beans trading above the 1430 level to finish 9 higher.  News is mostly still routine and the recent lighter volume we've been seeing recently makes it easier for the day-trade and speculator types to flow money in a favorable direction for them.  Brazil looks to be entering a timeframe that offers a good window of field work and Argentina is forecasted for significant rain to finish this week.  There is evidence of end-user coverage in soybean meal for poultry and dairy feed through early summer.  Weekly ethanol production was down 49k bbl/day last week, coming in at 922k bbl/day.  Ethanol stocks also rose 21.8 mln barrels vs the prior week at 21.3 mln.  Every day, more analysts are releasing their planting intentions estimates with most showing roughly 89 million acres for beans and either side of 94 million acres of corn.  If realized, this would be market-friendly for beans and bearish for corn.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.