3/4/2021

Mar 04, 2021


3/4/2021
It was assumed to be an uneventful day session after quiet, two-sided trade overnight.  Concerns in Brazil's infrastructure along with a further delay in harvest and bean quality issues from widespread, heavy rains forecasted for the next two days sent beans to 31 higher early in the session.  Corn benefited from spillover support to trade as much as 6 higher, with new crop nosing in a new contract high.  This strongly higher trade was surprising considering a lackluster weekly export sales report had traders clicking sell going into the morning break.  Weekly net sales for corn were poor at 116k tonnes sold (400-800k tonnes estimated) and beans posted a solid number of 334k tonnes (100-500k tonnes estimated).  A lack of fresh news continues to weaken the corn trade but the funds remain long and have been diligently defending the 530 level on the May contract.  Today's rally was sharply killed off shortly after high noon following an announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that stated the Fed would be "patient" in taking action against inflation.  This spurred a large sell off in stocks and commodities with DOW trading as much as 750 points lower.  If nothing else, today is a good reminder that our markets are about more than just acres, yield, and demand.  Soybeans still managed to finish the day 3 higher and corn was mixed.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.