3/4/2022

Mar 04, 2022


3/4/2022
WOW!  What else is there to say after this week?  Volatility was off the charts, corn spreads went insane, cash grain movement was huge.  The only thing that is making perfect sense in this market is the inverted relationship between futures and basis.  One of the basic rules of economics is beginning to show: an increase in price will result in a decrease in demand (high prices cure high prices).  The futures aren't always a true reflection of the market and investor/spec/fund money have driven up the board to the point of upsetting the cash grain trade and completely thrown off the demand curve for corn.  End users and processors gained about two months of coverage (March and April) in the first few days this week and simply do not need to compete for corn in the near future (rolled bids to July and widened basis).  They have no immediate needs and are already looking into the summer months.  It's going to take some time and a big wind down in volatility to see an improvement in cash.  The USDA confirmed 3 soybeans sales all for the 2021/22 marketing year this morning that included: 106,000 tonnes to China, 108,860 tonnes to Mexico, and 125,000 tonnes to unknown.  That's an approximate total of 12.5 million bushels.  Along with South American crop production questions and a suddenly non-existent Ukrainian export market, the USDA will throw another monkey wrench at the market next week with the March WASDE report on Wednesday.  Enjoy the weekend, everyone.
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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...