3/6/2024

Mar 06, 2024


Corn and soybeans mostly drifted around on Wednesday. Corn ventured back and forth on either side of unchanged before firming up at the close to finish 1-2 cents higher. Soybeans spent the day trading from 4 higher to 9 lower until picking up a bid at the end of the session to close from unchanged-2 lower. Corn's ability to hold above the 10-day is certainly giving confidence to those who have entered long positions over the psat week. It appears the funds are satisfied with the size of their current short position, the only thing really holding back corn and soybeans has been this week's wheat trade which has felt some serious pressure from increases in global production forecasts and rumors of U.S. exports being canceled. While analysts are not expecting any fireworks from the U.S. crop balance sheets, they are looking for some sizeable cuts in Brazil production.

Corn is getting a little squeeze between the 10- and 20-day moving averages and appears comfortable to ride this price consolidation into Friday’s report. If we can get some sort of friendly twist, even a small one, we have potential for a small breakout higher and would present an opportunity for the market to sneak back up to the 50-day.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.