Grain > Commentary > 4-1-2021

4/1/2021

Apr 01, 2021

4/1/2021
After closing limit higher yesterday, it was hard to imagine we would finish the week with a red leg on the chart for the old crop months.  Last night, May corn gapped higher on the open by 11 cents and May beans put up an 8-cent gap with both wasting little time trading to 20 higher.  It was a downhill slide after that with managed money and algorithm trading constantly repositioning.  Best not to put too much weight into today's trade action as we need the 3-day Easter break from trade to really understand what price levels we should be trading.  We get another big report next Friday, April 9, in the WASDE report.  If the USDA decides to keep carry-outs at the same numbers 3 months in a row, it will be tough to maintain our renewed bullish momentum.  Overshadowed today were the weekly export sales.  Corn, soybeans, and wheat were all within their expected ranges but mostly on the low end.  The biggest highlight was China purchasing one cargo of US soybeans plus one cargo switched from unknown to China.  Reminder, GPC will be closed tomorrow (4/2/21) for Good Friday.  The markets will also be closed but trade will resume Sunday evening at 7 p.m. and we can work a sell-order if you like.  Happy Easter.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.