4/22/2021

Apr 22, 2021


4/22/2021
The bulls flexed their muscles in a big way today with the May and July corn contracts finishing the day limit higher and cash beans 34 higher.  We commented earlier this spring that the combination of the tight balance sheets in corn and beans and weather could make for some huge market moves in either direction. The lingering cold looks to be on its way out of the US growing regions, which will see US corn planting pace increase accordingly, but with Brazil forecasted to be dry for the next 10 days and signs of drought stress already visible, grains had the only reason they needed to make a huge move higher.  How high do we go?  May beans traded 1543'0 today but failed to close above the major resistance level of 1536'6, back on 5/22/14.  A close above this number would have us set our sights on filling a gap to 1580'0 that is still on the chart from July, 2013.  Funds have added to their net longs in a huge way, taking advantage of the revised spec position limits that were set in place beginning of March.  This may create some interesting volatility on the way back down when our supply issues are resolved. The front month for Spring Wheat traded above the 700 level today for the first time since August of 2017.
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.