4/3/2023

Apr 03, 2023


What looked to be a hot start to the week cooled off for corn by mid-day. Commodities were expected to open higher following the announcement over the weekend from OPEC+ that crude production would be cut. A decision that is an assumed reaction to the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves not being supplemented at previously stated prices. The markets spent most of the overnight firmly in the green and corn traded out to 9 cents higher shortly after the 8:30 re-opening. Corn ended the day with the front contract down 2'6 cents and fractional to 1 cent higher finishes from July 23 and further out. Soybeans started out the session in strong fashion and held throughout the day, finishing 13-18 higher. Spreads off of the May contracts softened today. There were 2 export sale confirmations from the USDA this morning: 150,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico for 2023/24 and 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations in 2022/23. Weekly export inspections were near the top-end of estimates for corn at 1.097 mln tonnes inspected, soybean shipments were mid-range at 499k tonnes. Corn pace holds steady but should begin to close the gap on the USDA target during April.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.