4/30/2024

Apr 30, 2024


Tuesday saw grains in risk-off mode with wheat failing to make new highs for the first time in the past ten sessions. July soybeans have also failed to take out their 50-day moving average which sent them downwards to a 19 cent lower finish on the day. Corn losses were minimal considering the large negativity in the grain trading space, finishing 1-3 cents lower and bouncing back above the moving averages after testing the waters below during the session. Mother nature has really flipped the script in terms of soil moisture. Over the past week, a vast majority of the grain belt has received 1-4" of rainfall and bringing a much-needed recharge to the soil. Very ideal for any ground already planted but it's interesting how analysts who were bullish on dry/droughty are now already pushing a PP story, citing continued rains in the forecast. In our opinion, it is way too early to put any weight on a story like that. Best case scenario right now is that any PP helps keep us under 93 million corn acres.

7-day rainfall map

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...