Grain > Commentary > 4-8-2021

4/8/2021

Apr 08, 2021

4/8/2021
A good day on the board of trade for both corn and soybeans.  Some rumblings of possible export business but other than that, not much for new news.  Today's strongly higher trade in corn caught many by surprise, with most expecting a move of this type tomorrow.  It appears the funds spent today positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report where it is expected that the USDA will cut the corn and soybean carryout numbers.  Possible drought stress issues in Brazil's second crop corn also had speculators putting their money down on the long side of the market.  The weekly export sales report was mixed with both old and new crop corn reported within their expected ranges.  Old crop beans showed net-cancellations in contrast to new crop beans, where numbers came in above trade estimates.  It is tough to pin-point a certain reason why corn was so strong today besides just a combination of everything bullish coming forward, similar to our down days where everything bearish gets spotlighted at one time.  Tomorrow will be nothing short of exciting in the markets.  Nice soaker-type rain showers over the past couple days in our area with more forecasted.  Looks like we will have ample moisture to get this year's crop started.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.