Grain > Commentary > 4-8-2021

4/8/2021

Apr 08, 2021

4/8/2021
A good day on the board of trade for both corn and soybeans.  Some rumblings of possible export business but other than that, not much for new news.  Today's strongly higher trade in corn caught many by surprise, with most expecting a move of this type tomorrow.  It appears the funds spent today positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report where it is expected that the USDA will cut the corn and soybean carryout numbers.  Possible drought stress issues in Brazil's second crop corn also had speculators putting their money down on the long side of the market.  The weekly export sales report was mixed with both old and new crop corn reported within their expected ranges.  Old crop beans showed net-cancellations in contrast to new crop beans, where numbers came in above trade estimates.  It is tough to pin-point a certain reason why corn was so strong today besides just a combination of everything bullish coming forward, similar to our down days where everything bearish gets spotlighted at one time.  Tomorrow will be nothing short of exciting in the markets.  Nice soaker-type rain showers over the past couple days in our area with more forecasted.  Looks like we will have ample moisture to get this year's crop started.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.