5/16/2022

May 16, 2022


5/16/2022
Riding the coattails of limit higher trade in wheat, corn and soybeans posted large gains to start our week.  After gapping higher on the open, corn finished the day 9-28 higher and soybeans 2-13 higher.  Weekly export inspections for corn were on the lower side of the trade range at 1.037 million tonnes inspected and soybeans on the upper end of their range at 784k tonnes inspected.  Corn export shipments exceed the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 57 million bushels, soybean shipments fall short by 35 million bushels but improved from a 48-million-bushel deficit the previous week.  Trade will be anxious to see where the USDA puts corn planting percentage at in this afternoon's weekly progress report.  Estimates range from 43-58% with an average of 49%.  This would be a nice bump from last week's 22% and get us back within spitting distance of the 5-year average, which is 67% for this week.  Estimates for soybean planting progress this week average 29% with a range of 25-36%.  This would also be a nice increase from last week's progress report and keep us easily within reach of the 39% 5-year average.  A lot of wheels turning in our territory today, let's hope the rain in the forecast stays away.

Crude Oil/Corn comparison
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.