5/20/2021

May 20, 2021


5/20/2021
Corn and soybeans were mostly higher overnight and for a majority of the day session.  Corn was able to keep part of its gains into the close, with new crop finishing 13 higher, but beans faded early in the final hour, closing 2-5 cents into the red.  It appears we have found some support levels in corn to work off of.  With the glut of the excess spec money liquidated out, we can now get back to keying direction off of fundamentals.  The demand outlook for corn continues to look positive with end-users posting good margins, numbers that are sure to improve with a 70 cent pull back in the futures.  USDA reported another flash sale of 1.224 mln tonnes of new crop corn to China this morning, adding another 48.1 mln bushels to their 21/22 marketing year total.  Soybeans continue to slip away from their highs with the July contract settling $1.34 below its contract high set back on May 12.  Soybean basis has been weakening in that same time frame but expect demand to pick up with the raw product becoming cheaper.  Weekly export sales were headlined by corn posting 4.062 mln tonnes of new crop sold.  Old crop corn had net sales of 278k tonnes and old crop beans offered some upside to the market with 84k tonnes sold.  Recent rain falls will keep the market on guard as some dry areas continue to pick up moisture.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.